Tuesday, June 11, 2013

What is the cost of student loan forgiveness programs?

First published at EconomicMemos. (I will revamp Economic Memos soon.)

I have not seen a formal analysis of the cost of student loan forgiveness programs by the CBO but public statements indicate that the budget office believes these costs are high.
In a 2009 report, the CBO writes that:

“although forbearance and deferment policies avoid some defaults, they also entail significant costs for the government because they lengthen the average repayment period of a loan at below-market interest rates.”

Comments:
The CBO provides no estimates of the number of defaults avoided or their average size.
I read an article today stating the government garnishes student Social Security payment to collect on past due student loans. Chronic defaults and underpayments can also extend repayment periods. This possibility is not considered by the CBO.

The CBO further writes that:

“the recovery rate on defaulted loans – the present value of the cash flow recovered for each dollar of loans in default (net of the cost of collection) also affects the cost to the government from borrowers defaults. The Department of Education has strong collection mechanisms available that bolster its recoveries. The inability of borrowers to have their student loans discharged in bankruptcy proceedings extends the period over which delinquent defaults can be collected to the entire lifetime of the borrower.”

Comments:
It would be useful if the CBO provided some statistics measuring the effectiveness of student loan repayment efforts on different populations based on their income and age. Similarly, how much is collected from borrowers who emerge from bankruptcy with a substantial amount of student loan debt.

Could the lack of a possibility of loan forgiveness actually decrease collections if borrowers who realize that they will never be out of debt take more aggressive evasive actions?

Student loans do not currently have priority over credit card debt in bankruptcy. How much would the taxpayer benefit if student loans were granted priority in bankruptcy proceedings?


Would a properly targeted student loan forgiveness program reduce the number of people in poverty or near poverty?

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Is there a student debt crisis?


A June 4, 2013 article in the Wall Street Cheat Sheet asks the question how much student debt warrants a crisis.  This post summarizes and comments on the issues raised in this article. 



Summary:  Here are key points raised in this article>

Economists have observed parallels between the housing and student loan bubble.   Nobel Prize laureate Joseph Stiglitz observed that in both cases bankers encouraged people to borrow beyond their means.  The Federal Advisory Council warns that the growth of student lending, like the previous growth in mortgage lending, has outpaced the value of the good.

The American Institute of CPAs reported that nearly 39 million adults in the United States had student debt at the end of 2012, each loan averages close to $25,000, and number of loans increased 70% since 2004.

Analysis by Deutsche Bank suggests that even though the amount of student debt has increased substantially only a relatively small number of students have excessive debt.  The Deutsche Bank analysis indicates that the student debt problem is not a macro problem because only 8.0% of the population has student debt levels greater than $20,000.


Comments:


Comment One:  The growth of student lending need not lead to a financial collapse similar to the one caused by the growth in mortgage lending.  The collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman occurred because of the collapse of housing values, which impacted complex derivatives created by Wall Street.  Hopefully banking and security regulators and Wall Street learned something from the previous bubble and these complex financial structures will not be created again. 

Comment Two:  The Deutsche Bank numbers on student debt levels and changes in debt levels need to be parsed.   The incidence of high student debt levels is higher among the young adult population than the entire population.  The graph in the article of the frequency of debt total in October 2005 and October 2012 is not very useful.  I need raw data in order to calculate the number of student debtors with more than certain thresholds.   One potential benchmark is the percent of students with student debt over a percent of median income for their state or their own median income if such data was available.


Comment Three:  Household student debt totals are more relevant than individual totals. 

Comment Four:  Financial distress is determined by total debt not just student debt.  It would be useful to evaluate the extent to which student debt is increasing the number of households in financial distress.
 
Comment Five:  The Deutsche Bank analysis suggests that student debt is not primarily a macro problem.  This is likely correct; however, the increase in student debt does have significant implications for the overall economy, for specific sectors, and for macro economic policy.   

·      Higher student debt decreases the number of households that can afford or will choose to purchase a home.

·      High student debt levels will exacerbate the adverse impact of higher interest rates on housing markets. A relatively small increase in interest rate will make a new home unaffordable or an unwise purchase for young adults who are starting their career with high levels of debt.

·      High student debt levels increase financial problems for young adults caused by unemployment..  The growth in student debt has coincided with a severe recession and most post-recession job growth has resulted in the creation of lower-wage positions.  Since young adults start their career in a tenuous financial position it may be desirable for the Federal Reserve to intervene and prevent economic downturns.

In the long term greater intervention by the Fed could lead to inflation and worsen the economy.  The possible impact of the lack of a safety net on policy makers responses to recession is discusses in Raghuram Rajan’s book Fault Lines.



Comment Six: High student debt levels could increase poverty among a segment of the population.  On average, education is a good investment but all investments are a gamble and some students are not able to achieve financial success.  Current bankruptcy laws make it extremely difficult to discharge student debt.   See the attached New York Times article on the application for a student loan discharge by a legally blind man with few employment opportunities.




Comment Seven:  The prospect of high student loan debt will prevent many students from middle and lower-income households from applying to better colleges.   I doubt better colleges will reduce tuition because foreign applicants can fill these spots.  The lack of access to the best schools by the best applicants will reduce opportunity, upward mobility, and innovation.  Readers interested in the issue of access to higher education at elite schools should look at the report below.



Comment Six:  The for-profit sector is growing and student debt payment problems in this sector are disproportionate to other sectors.   The article notes that student debt issues are especially severe at for-profit colleges.  A recent Senate report on the topic was sited. 


However, the for-profit sector remains a relatively small part of the student loan problem.  It would be useful to have more statistics on debt problems at different types of institutions.    Perhaps a future blog will deal with this topic. 



Readers interested in the student debt problem may also want to look at



Monday, June 3, 2013

More ACA litigation.


More ACA litigation

This article on litigation brought by business groups attempting to overturn key aspects of the ACA is fascinating. This post provides a quick summary of the litigation and my comments.


Summary:  Plaintiffs in at least two court cases argue that tax credits for the purchase of health insurance in state exchanges are only available for insurance sold on health exchanges established by the state.   According to this argument, tax credits are not allowed in states that refused to set up an exchange and left the task to the federal government.

Plaintiffs argue that the lack of a tax credit for the purchase of health insurance in certain states makes other key aspects of the ACA invalid or less applicable.

  • Since penalties imposed on employers who fail to provide health insurance are only triggered if employees received tax credits the employer mandate does not exist in states that do not create an exchange.


  • The individual mandate does not pertain to households if health insurance is unaffordable.  A policy is deemed unaffordable if premiums exceed 8.0% of income.  The lack of a tax credit would result in health insurance premiums exceeding the 8.0% threshold.  These households are not required to purchase health insurance.


This situation arose because the Senate version of the ACA was enacted after the Democrats lost the Massachusetts Senate seat. The Plaintiffs argue that this interpretation accurately reflects the intent of the Senate bill, which became the basis for the ACA.  The IRS has argued that Congress intended the tax credit to apply both to states that created their own exchange and states where exchanges were created by the Federal government.  The plaintiffs argue the plain language of the law states otherwise.

Comments:

Comment One:  Very clever!!!

Comment Two: If the plaintiffs win their case states would still be subject to rules banning pre-existing conditions and underwriting based on health status.  However, a key subsidy for mitigating the costs associated these changes would not be available in states that did not establish an exchange.


Comment Three:  Is this the way laws are made in Washington?   What is the gang of eight currently putting in the immigration bill?  Would the Administration also capitulate on key language in order to achieve a comprehensive budget deal?  I hope that the progressive Democrats in the Senate are willing to scuttle the immigration law and a budget deal or any future legislation unless there is clarity on key provisions. 

Comment Four:  There have been a number of instances where the IRS has had to interpret aspects of the ACA.  (Instances include regulations governing eligibility for a tax credit when small employers offer health insurance and rules governing the value of benefits that a large firm must offer.)  The IRS tends to argue that the plain language of the statute requires them to rule in a narrow way.  In this case, the IRS rules they had authority to more broadly interpret the statute.  I tend to find that previous IRS rulings lacked credibility and common sense.

Comment Five:  The business groups arguing this case want to deny the citizens of their state a valuable tax credit; thereby, increasing the cost of health insurance for individuals in their state.  A ruling overturning tax credits and the employer mandate could actually benefit the Democrats politically. Opponents of the ACA that are bringing this court case need to be careful what they wish for!!!!

Comment Six:  The DC circuit court could play the key role in deciding this case.   Last I heard there were four vacancies on this court.  This is not payback for Bork.  This is unprecedented.  Senator Reid and President Obama need to take a stand on their judicial nominees.  The time for compromise on this issue is long past.  Senate rules need must be modified to allow up or down vote for judicial nominations after a certain point in time.


Sunday, June 2, 2013

Seven ways to provide student loan debt relief


The National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators originally published this article.   I am grateful to them for allowing me to reprint it here.

The original link for the article is here.





Seven Ways to Provide Student Loan Debt Relief

The current generation of students is leaving school with more debt than any previous generation. While postsecondary education remains a good investment for the average student loan borrower, some borrowers will never be able to repay their student loans in full. Moreover, current bankruptcy law and procedures make it very difficult for borrowers with student debt to ever obtain a fresh financial start.

At the federal level, there is some interest in policies that might alleviate student loan debt burdens. The desire to provide student debt relief to borrowers is tempered by concern about the cost to taxpayers when this government guaranteed debt isn’t fully repaid. In my view, it is possible to provide a modest level of student debt relief to borrowers without imposing substantial costs on taxpayers. This could be accomplished by modifying the Income Based Replacement (IBR) Loan Program and through changes to the bankruptcy code.

The IBR program, enacted in 2009, provides four benefits to student loan borrowers.
1.     Reduction in student loan payments when household income is low in relation to qualified student debt,
2.     Reduction in interest payments when IBR payments do not cover interest due,
3.     Limits on the capitalization of interest for loans in deferment or forbearance, and
4.     Forgiveness of a remaining loan balance 25 years after the student loan enters repayment.
In addition, some student loan borrowers who maintain payments through the IBR program will be able to utilize public loan forgiveness programs

The primary purpose of the IBR program is to prevent borrowers from defaulting on their student loan when their household income is low compared to qualified student loan debt. Only student loan borrowers with chronically low levels of household income can receive some debt forgiveness. Borrowers who receive lower payments through the IBR program will often pay more on their loan than if they remain in the standard 10-year payment plan.

The IBR program is complex and does not offer assistance to many overextended student loan borrowers. First, the IBR program does not cover PLUS loans made to parents, private loans, or consolidated loans that include a parent PLUS loan or a private student loan. The decision to consolidate 10-year loans into a 20-year loan could also make borrowers ineligible for the IBR program. To fully benefit from the IBR program, borrowers need to be aware of IBR rules long before they are aware that they will need IBR, when they are borrowing or consolidating federal student loans.

Second, the IBR program often provides little or no relief to a household that has high levels of both consumer debt and student loans. The IBR program is especially complex for married households.  A single person who qualifies for the reduced IBR loan payment could lose this benefit if he or she marries someone with high levels of consumer debt, even if household debt-to-income ratios increased after marriage. Married individuals could choose to file separate tax returns to take advantage of the IBR program, but that decision usually results in a larger tax obligation.
It is impossible to modify the IBR program to account for consumer debt without creating an incentive for additional borrowing.  Borrowers with high levels of student debt and consumer loans might seek relief in bankruptcy courts.  However, current bankruptcy laws and procedures offer little relief for borrowers with student loan debt.

There are two ways debtors can seek student loan debt relief in bankruptcy. First, the debtor could petition the court for a complete or partial discharge of student debt. Second, in a Chapter 13 bankruptcy the debtor could petition the court for a payment plan that favors the repayment of student loans over the repayment of other unsecured loans. Neither remedy is easily obtained.

To discharge student debt in bankruptcy, the borrower must prove that he or she has an “undue hardship.” Most courts require that the borrower show a “certainty of hopelessness” for his or her financial situation over the repayment term of the loan. A certainty for hopelessness is extremely difficult to demonstrate because there is some probability circumstances will improve, even for individuals in extremely dire circumstances. An August 31, 2012, New York Times article describing the petition of a legally blind, unemployed man illustrated the hurdles a student loan borrower must clear in order to have student debt discharged in bankruptcy.

Any proposal that makes it easy to discharge government guaranteed student loans in bankruptcy entails some additional cost to the taxpayer. However, it is easy to envision a less stringent student loan discharge rule that does not significantly increase taxpayer costs. Such a rule would rely on objective criteria rather than the subjective “undue hardship” concept. For example, student loan discharge could be limited to individuals with incomes near poverty level, contingent on participation in the IBR program, favor individuals with medical problems, and allow for partial, rather than full, loan cancellation.

Two other aspects of the bankruptcy code have a substantial impact on financial outcomes for student loan borrowers in bankruptcy and for the government agencies that hold or guarantee student debt.  First, financial outcomes are affected by the rules governing whether a debtor can obtain a Chapter 7 bankruptcy or a Chapter 13 bankruptcy.  Second, financial outcomes are affected by the rules governing repayment of student debt and other unsecured consumer loans under a Chapter 13 repayment plan.

Under a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the bankruptcy court will immediately discharge most unsecured consumer loans. In a Chapter 13 bankruptcy plan, debtors must file repayment plans with the bankruptcy court. The repayment plan determines how much debtors can repay creditors and the amount received by each creditor. Prior to the 2005 bankruptcy law, debtors could choose to either file under Chapter 7 or Chapter 13. The 2005 bankruptcy law created a means test that required many individuals with incomes over the household median to file Chapter 13 rather than Chapter 7.

When student loans are dismissed under Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the borrower gets an immediate fresh start and can use all the newly available funds for the repayment of student debt. A borrower who obtained a deferment prior to bankruptcy can immediately renew payments on his or her student loan. By contrast, when borrowers are placed into a Chapter 13 repayment plan, the amount allocated to the payment of student loans might not even cover interest and, in many circumstances, the debtor will leave bankruptcy with a substantial student debt intact.

Student loan borrowers in Chapter 13 can petition the bankruptcy court to allocate a greater amount of their payment plan to the repayment of student loans and a lower amount to the repayment of other unsecured credit card debt. However, most courts tend to favor a payment plan that does not discriminate against any class of unsecured creditors. As a result, many student loan debtors emerge from the bankruptcy process five years older with a substantial amount of unpaid student loans. Many individuals experience decreases in income and have fewer job prospects after age 50. A delay in repayment of student loans caused by a forced entry into a Chapter 7 bankruptcy plan will increase financial exposure to taxpayers, increase student loan default rates, and decrease collection rates.

A revision of Chapter 13 bankruptcy rules that gives priority to student debt payments over other unsecured debt payments in bankruptcy would provide student loan debtors with a fresh financial start and would ultimately reduce taxpayer losses. Unsecured creditors would still enjoy greater collection rights than existed prior to the 2005 bankruptcy law.

Under current law, very little debt relief is offered to overextended student loan borrowers experiencing substantial economic hardship. Several policy changes might provide modest debt relief to these borrowers, maintain strong incentives against default, and protect taxpayer interests.  These policies include:

·      Allowing married couples to obtain IBR debt reduction without having to actually file separate tax returns,
·      Making PLUS loans to parents and consolidated student loans with a PLUS loan eligible for the IBR loan program,
·      Allowing private student loans to be discharged in bankruptcy,
·      Basing the decision to discharge student loans in bankruptcy on objective criteria pertaining to the economic status of the bankruptcy applicant rather than the subjective “undue hardship”  concept,
·      Allowing for quicker loan forgiveness under the IBR program for individuals in dire economic circumstances,
·      Repealing or modify the Chapter 13 means test, 
·      Providing priority to student debt over other unsecured loans in Chapter 13.

The goal of debt forgiveness policies inside and outside of bankruptcy is to balance two competing objectives: providing overextended borrowers a fresh start, and fair treatment towards creditors. The pendulum may have swung too close to the creditor, especially with regard to the treatment of student debt.

The author is a retired economist who worked in the Office of Economic Policy of the U.S. Treasury from 1988 to 2012. He publishes a blog www.economicmemos.com